What Does It Mean To Be Progressive?

This editorial in the Washington Post takes a first pass at defining progressivism.  It encourages others to engage in a discussion about the meaning of progressivism.  However, much of the editorial was about shaping the discussion that might follow.  For example, it was critical of efforts by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders to make our country more progressive.  It argued that middle class Americans might get more benefits from their programs than impoverished Americans.  This focuses the inequality discussion into a battle within the lower half of the income distribution for a limited amount of social welfare spending.  It makes the point that programs like Social Security and Medicare are no longer affordable so it is makes no sense to even talk about increasing the payouts from those programs.  It admits that the top 1% of our income distribution has received the lion's share of the growth in personal income, but it avoids any discussion of raising their taxes so that we can afford to pay for social welfare programs.  Conservatives will love the way in which they have shaped the discussion about progressivism.  The battle over government resources is a battle between the middle class and more deserving citizens in poverty and raising taxes on the well off is excluded from the discussion.  Moreover, it is not critical of efforts by Republicans to reduce the tax burden of of the super rich.  Tax cuts for the rich shift the tax burden to less advantaged citizens.

The editorial takes a similar stance in its defense of globalization.  It argues that trade has been very good for the poor in many parts of the world.  It has raised the standard of living in many developing countries by unprecedented amounts in any period of human history.  That is true, but it avoids any real discussion of the distribution of benefits from trade in developed countries.  Most of those benefits have gone to the executives of multi-national corporations, their shareholders, and to bankers who facilitate international trade and currency movements.

To summarize, the Post editorial has shaped the discussion about progressivism into a very conservative direction.  The discussion is about income redistribution.  That is, how we divide a limited amount of available resources between the middle class and those in who are in even greater need of government help.  It makes no effort to deal with the maldistribution of income by market forces.  The market system has been modified over the last three decades to increase the incomes of those at the top of the distribution and to reduce their share of the tax load.  We can have no real discussion of progressivism without addressing the changes that have occurred in the market system.

The Post editorial correctly points out that economic growth makes it easier to improve the lives of our citizens.  It implies that progressive ideas may impede growth.  In other words, a more progressive tax system and a more progressive market system may kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.   Ronald Reagan, and supply side economics, is alive and well in the Post.

Will Trump's Economic Plan Make America Great?

Larry Summers supports the use of fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth.  However, he points out that it must be done right or we will do more harm that it will do good.  Donald Trump will invest in infrastructure and he will increase defense spending.  He will also cut taxes.  That will produce budget deficits which stimulate growth.  Summers argues the Trump's infrastructure investment plan puts too much emphasis on the private sector's use of tax credits.  He also points out that eliminating the inheritance tax, and cutting taxes primarily for the wealthy, will not stimulate growth.  It will cause them to save rather than to increase their spending.  Summers is also skeptical of Trump's trade policies.  The value of the peso and other currencies have fallen in response to Trump's election.  That will make their exports less expensive to Americans and it will make our exports more expensive.  Populists usually make outrageous promises to win elections.  Summers hopes that Trump will avoid the mistakes that most populist governments have made after winning elections.

How Can We Explain Trump's Victory?

There will be lots of efforts to explain Trump's triumph in the election.  What we do know is that his presidency will achieve what Republican's have failed to achieve by selling its ideology to the American people.  Trump won the election by using identity politics to his advantage.  His base was less interested in policies than it was in preserving their identity in a society that has been rapidly moving away from them.  Now that Trump has a Republican Congress to work with he will implement the ideological policies are fundamental to the Republican Party.  We will get a more regressive tax plan, less government regulation and increased military spending.  That will produce budget deficits that only worry Republicans when Democrats are in office.  The deficits will then become the excuse for reducing spending on social welfare programs.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but she lost three Democratic states, by a thin margin, that cost her the election.  Thirteen million votes were cast in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Trump's margin for victory in those critical states was only one tenth of 1%.  She would be our president if she had won those states.  Her loss by a razor thin margin had little to do with policies. It was all about identity politics.  Clinton failed to sell inclusiveness to voters in those states who were more enthusiastic about Trump's appeals to white identity.  There were other factors in play that are well described by a leader of Obama's successful campaign.  Democratic turnout was lower than it was in Obama's election and third party candidates may have captured more Clinton votes than Trump votes.

Trump Will Appoint Climate Change Skeptic To Shape EPA

The election is barely over but The Donald signaled that he would roll back Obama's effort to reduce carbon emissions.  He appointed a rabid climate change denialist, who is also a libertarian with strong beliefs about reducing the role of government in the economy, to alter the focus of the Environmental Protection Agency.  He is a friend of the coal industry which opposes the Obama's plan to reduce the role of coal in energy production.  If Donald Trump has his way, the health of our planet may be one of the most damaging legacies that he will leave to our children.

A Hisory Of American Populism

Populism has a long history in the US and it is flourishing in Europe today.  It has taken on many forms in the US in response unique situations in our history.  It is more powerful during economic downturns since more people are exposed to hardship in bad times.  Donald Trump won the US election by employing populist messages that were enthusiastically received by his base.  Bernie Sanders also employed populist themes in his primary campaign that were well received by many Democrats.  Populism is not necessarily bad.  Many positive reforms in the US have been in response to populist concerns.  However, some forms of populism have been exploited by politicians who are more concerned about winning elections than they are about reforms that promote social welfare.  The disparity between Donald Trump's campaign promises, and the economic policies that he announced during his campaign, raises serious questions about his use of common populist themes that have been effective in winning elections.  This article in Foreign Affairs describes the use and misuse of populism during our history.

Bernie Sanders used a common form of populism that raises concerns about income inequality and economic hierarchy.  He made a case for the use of government programs that would redistribute income from those at the top of the hierarchy to those in the lower rungs of the hierarchy.  He favors a form of social democracy that is more common in Europe than it is in the US.  Donald Trump's populism was much broader than Bernie Sanders' populism.  He appealed to a form of racial nationalism and ethnicity along with  fears about foreigners that were more common earlier in our history.  That allowed him to defeat Hillary Clinton in many counties that had voted for President Obama in recent elections.  President Obama used a message about change in which we could believe.  He told Americans that "Yes We Can" make important changes.  Hillary Clinton failed to sell herself as change agent.  Trump's theme song of "Making America Great Again" worked better than Clinton's argument that we were already great because we were an inclusive society.  That message did less well than Trump's form of white nationalism and the exclusion of foreign influences in America.

The US Election From The Perspective Of The Financial Times

Donald Trump's victory was a major surprise.  The Financial Times offers many perspectives on how it happened and the implications.

America Put A Novice In Charge Of Our Nation: Can Trump Prevent Recession?

This is a short answer to questions about Trump's economic plan and its impact on the US economy.  Most economists would agree with its major premises.  If Trump follows his economic plan a recession is very likely.