Rex Tillerson May Be Replaced As Secretary of State

Signals are coming from the White House that Trump plans to replace Rex Tillerson with Mike Pompeo who Trump had put in charge of the CIA. Tom Cotton, a senator from Arizona, is rumored as the replacement for Pompeo in the CIA.  Pompeo and Cotton have demonstrated loyalty to Trump that ha beens much stronger than that of Tillerson who mistakenly believed that he was in charge of the State Department.  There is only one boss in the Trump administration.  He runs the government much like he ran his businesses.  He had no board of directors or stockholders to appease.  Neither Congress or the judiciary can expect to limit Trump's ability to run the government as he ran his businesses.

Rex Tillerson spent 41 years at Exxon Mobile where he worked his way up to the CEO position.  His first impulse as our new Secretary of State was to do what many CEO's do after reaching that pinnacle. He decided to reorganize the department and reduce the headcount.  Apparently, he believed that increasing the efficiency of the organization was his top priority.  Trump could care less about efficiency.  He only cares about personal loyalty to his greatness.  Tillerson mistakenly believed that he was in charge and that it was OK to be critical of Trump.  Pompeo will not make that mistake.

Its sad to witness the humiliation of Tillerson by the master of humiliation.  He will return to private life with a big scar that will last forever.  On the other hand, he will not be missed by many State Department professionals.  They did not respond well to a rookie boss with no experience in government.  Pompeo may not be a better leader at State but he understands who is really the boss.  He will shape the department to serve the Donald.

Tom Cotton as the head of the CIA creates another problem.  The CIA is supposed to be an apolitical organization.  The appointment of a Republican senator, loyal to Trump, is out of character for the CIA.  He will be viewed suspiciously by career employees in the CIA.  
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The Self Destruction Of US Democracy

There has been a clear increase in the risk to democracy in the US.  This article provides a good description of the fault lines in our system of governance.  It took Trump only one year to weaken a system that took hundreds of years to develop.  Given the position of the US in the western world, the problems that Trump has created in the US have been exported to other nations.  Unfortunately, the Republican congress is willing to grant Trump the freedom to do whatever he pleases as long as he helps to sell policies which please their donors to the electorate. The Mueller investigation may uncover damaging evidence that can be used to defuse Trump, but our only real hope is to elect candidates to Congress who place the national interest above political party interest.  Three more years of Trump, with a Republican Congress behind him, may put an end to our experiment with democracy.

It is perhaps too easy to blame Trump for all of the problems with our system of governance. The fact that he was able to win the GOP nomination and the presidential election was a signal that something serious had gone wrong with our system.  Now it appears that Trump will succeed in selling a tax plan, designed to benefit Republican donors, and himself, as a plan designed to benefit less advantaged citizens. Our government established the FDA to make it more difficult to sell snake oil as a remedy for common health problems.  Trump is an expert selling snake oil that increases his power, and we don't have the equivalent of the FDA to deter him.  The press has done what it can to expose the snake oil but Trump, with some help from his friends, has been somewhat successful in convincing many Americans that the media are selling snake oil.  The fundamental requirement in any democratic system is a well informed public.  A public that is unable to discriminate between snake oil and effective medications will not enjoy the benefits of a democratic system for very long.  Snake oil is not only ineffective, it is deadly.

How To Sell A Tax Plan For Corporations As A Middle Class Tax Cut

The Republican tax plan provides corporations with large permanent tax cuts.  The plan also provides temporary tax cuts to the middle class that disappear over a ten year period.  The middle class tax cuts have to be temporary so that the Republican Senate can pass the plan without any votes from Democrats. Senate rules allow the tax plan to pass with a simple majority as long as the plan does not increase the federal debt by by more than $1.5 trillion over a ten year period.  They only need 50 votes from the 52 Republican senators to get a simple majority since the Vice President can cast a vote to provide a 51 vote majority.

Some senate Republicans have issues with the tax plan.  Some are deficit hawks who object to any increase in the national debt.  Others would like to make a few other changes to please their constituents.  There is a lot of pressure on Republicans to pass any tax plan prior to the mid-term elections in order to demonstrate their ability to govern. However, the plan is not very popular with many voters who view the plan as a gift to corporations.  Democrats should have an easy time making that point in the mid-term elections.  The economics profession has many issues with the plan that raise important questions about GOP efforts to sell it as a plan for the middle class.  The odds are that some kind of bad plan will get passed.  We will have to see whether Democrats have the ability to convince voters that they cannot trust the GOP to look after their interests.

Trump's War Against The Free Press Supports Autocracy Everywhere

In Trump's mind the free press is his enemy.  He praises Fox News whose target market includes Trump's base, and he has been working hard to convince Americans that CNN and the major news media are sources of fake news.  Its easy to understand Trump's efforts to discredit the media at personal level.  Trump has an insatiable desire for praise and adulation.  He gets that from Fox News.  He does not get that from the mainstream media.  Even worse, the media does not pull any punches when they cover him and his administration.  They violate another of Trump's psychological needs.  He can't tolerate criticism, and he has no use for an objective coverage his policy proposals.  Whatever Trump claims is the truth as long as it serves his purposes.  He frequently alters his opinions on almost any topic when a "new truth" better serves his purposes.

This article reports on efforts to help Trump in his war against objective reporting.  A right wing organization tried to scam the Washington Post.  One of its stooges contacted a Washington Post reporter and claimed that Roy Moore had impregnated her and then forced her to have an abortion. That would have been a major story if it were true.  However, the reporter had several doubts about the woman's story and he did what good reporters in the "fake media" do.  He checked out the story and he found that it was fabricated.  He did not report her story and found that she was connected to a right wing organization that has a mission to prove that the mainstream media tell nothing but lies.

While Trump is unable to tolerate the free press in the US, he has taken his attack on the media to the international level.  CNN has an international audience and its reports and him and his administration has not been good for his self esteem.  Trump fired tweets at CNN's international reporting of "fake news".  His attack on CNN, however, goes beyond the damage that its reporting does to his self esteem.  His efforts to delegitimize objective media sources is consistent with efforts underway in many autocratic regimes to control the information that is provided to the public.  Trump is providing leadership to autocratic regimes everywhere.  One might be critical of government directed US news sources such as the Voice of America in places like Russia, but Trump is trying to discredit private sources of news like CNN which is primarily protected by its reputation for responsible journalism.  Trump understands this and that is why he doing what he can to attack their reputation.

Top Economists Agree About Two Outcomes From GOP Tax Plan

Republican politicians claim that their tax plan will stimulate economic growth.  They also claim that the tax cuts will stimulate enough growth to pay for the cuts.  A poll of 42 top economists shows that there is little support among economists for their claims.  They don't believe that the tax cuts will produce substantial economic growth, and they agree that the tax cuts will add substantially to the national debt.  That won't have much impact on Republican politicians, or on many of their followers.  The benefactors from the tax cuts don't really care about anything but a reduction in their taxes.  They are also the paymasters for their Republican supporters.  Furthermore, many low income Republicans don't really care much about what "elite intellectuals" have to say about tax policies.  They get most of their information from sources that are aligned with the Republican Party who claim that they offer "fair and balanced" news. They have a strange concept of fair and balanced news.  They exclude the views of top economists and they promote the views of paid hacks at conservative "think tanks" which are funded by the folks who benefit from the tax cuts.

The GOP tax plan also shows what Republicans really think about budget deficits and the national debt.  Budget deficits and increases in the national debt have been how they have paid for tax cuts in previous Republican administrations.  They prefer to pay for government by borrowing instead of taxing the income of wealthy Republicans. They also get to collect the interest on the debt by buying US treasuries.

Michael Flynn's Lawyers Have Stopped Communication With Trump's Lawyers

Michael Flynn's lawyers had been sharing information into his investigation by Mueller's team.  They informed Trump's legal team that they would no longer share information with them.  One of the implications of this decision by Flynn's legal team is that Flynn may be negotiating a deal with Mueller.  This is typical in these kinds of investigations.  Mueller may be offering Flynn more lenient treatment in exchange for information that he has about the Trump campaign.  Flynn may or may not reach a deal with Mueller but it would be significant if he chose to do so. Flynn has information about Trump and his campaign because of his position in the campaign.  Trump named Flynn as his national security chief after his election.  Trump also asked FBI Director James Comey to "go easy on Flynn".  Trump fired Comey after he refused to do so.

Why Paul Krugman Is Thankful But Worried About The Future

Paul Krugman was born during a period in which he was able to experience the promises of our democracy.  He probably would not have won a Noble Prize in economics if he were growing up in the America that developing today.  He lists the things that made it possible for him to live a good life and he describes the changes that are underway which will make it more difficult for others like him to have the same opportunities.  As you might imagine Trumpism is the enemy of middle class people like himself who has enjoyed the benefits of an open society that are being attacked by the Republican Party under Trump's leadership.  The majority of Republicans have come to believe that their culture and dominance is at risk because of intellectuals like Krugman and a  university system that promotes reason over blind faith and is supportive of an open society. The America that existing while Krugman was growing up is the enemy of the plutocracy that is working hard to destroy it through their sponsorship of willing Republican politicians and the private propaganda system that it has promoted.  Fox News, Breitbart News,  along with talk radio and the misuse of the social media, are their weapons of mass misinformation and the mass destruction of the social system that enabled Krugman to thrive.  We should keep his warnings in mind.  Social Democracy is the enemy of a rigid social economic hierarchy. The plutocracy is intent upon turning the clock back to earlier era in which the plutocracy had more control over our political and social system.  Communism used to be the enemy which they used to seek more power.  Since the demise of Communism, social democracy and liberalism is their new enemy.  Donald Trump told voters in Alabama to vote for Roy Moore because an accused pedophile was a better choice than a liberal democratic senator for Alabama.