The Rain In Spain Will Continue For A Long Time

The IMF and S&P have bad news for the Spanish Economy.  Unemployment will remain above 20% at least until 2020.  There is little prospect for growth in productivity and its population is shrinking and aging at the same time.  High youth unemployment will also lead to more emigration.  Credit for businesses is also scarce and expensive.  Spain is in for extended period of low growth and increasing debt to GDP ratios.  It is hard to predict the political response to these problems.  The population is losing faith in its domestic and EU institutions.  There does not seem to be an easy solution to the problems in Spain.  Any solution will be painful and politicians will avoid any source of pain.