San Francisco Fed Raises US Recession Risk to .50 Due To Risk In Europe

This research report by the San Francisco Fed looks at the probability of recession in the US. Looking at the US by itself, the picture is one of some economic growth, but not enough to lower the unemployment rate. The risk of recession increases to .50, however, if the risk of recession in Europe is factored into the equation. If the US gets through the first half of 2012 without recession the risk declines.