Thursday, December 8, 2011

Mitt Romney Spins Defense of the Middle Class Into Socialism

Mitt Romney responded to Obama's populist speech in Kansas. As expected, the president is described as a socialist for daring to discuss income inequality. Obama made a good effort to craft bipartisan solutions to our economic and social problems. The silence from the GOP was deafening. He might as well run as a traditional Democrat.

Romney's response to the president's speech was in line with the picture of him that the right wing has painted since he took office. He is not really an American. Portraying him as a socialist, despite his glowing description of the benefits derived from capitalism, is just one piece of the portrait. What's really puzzling about this article is the effort made to determine whether Romney is really as stupid as his response to the speech implies. Romney is not stupid. He has decided to base his campaign against Obama on the framework that has been put in place since the president's election to office. This also helps him with the GOP base that will determine whether he should be the GOP nominee. He certainly cannot win the nomination without showing the base that he has a clear picture of the president that is consistent with what they want to believe. One of the problems that all of the GOP candidates have is that they must act as stupid as their base in order to win the nomination. It is pointless to ask whether they are really as stupid as they appear. How could it be otherwise?

Manufacturing Index For November Reflects Weak Global Demand

This article provides information on manufacturing activity by country. Manufacturing continued to fall in November in Europe and elsewhere. The US was tho only bright spot.

What's The Short Term and Longer Term Outlook In Europe?

This is one of many analyses of the eurozone crisis and how it will turn out. It has the ring of truth to it. It starts with the premise that leaders now understand the implications of a disorderly collapse. It will result in depression and they will do what is needed to backstop the eurozone to prevent a collapse. This means doing what is needed to protect creditors from defaults that lead to a collapse of the banking system. The ECB will purchase Italian and Spanish bonds to keep interest rates from rising.

It is politically necessary for Germany and the Netherlands to impose fiscal austerity on the nations that require financial assistance. Some proposals are being made that promise a eurozone with more fiscal integration and discipline. This is ultimately unworkable. Raising taxes and reducing public spending in the periphery will increase debt to GDP ratios unless private spending increases to compensate for austerity measures. Moreover, it is unlikely that Germany will be able to enforce fiscal rules on the periphery countries when they get out of line. Essentially the system is unworkable in the long run because convergence will not happen. That is, the periphery will not become more competitive with the core countries by getting a greater return on capital investments than countries that are already capital intensive. The likely outcome is a modified eurozone in which processes are put in place for an orderly exit by countries on the periphery.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Gorbachev Wants New Elections In Russia

The Post picks up on the protests in Moscow. The popular former leader of the USSR, M. Gorbachev stated that the elections should be overturned because of evidence of fraud. The government plans to draft students who have education deferments upon graduation. This should encourage even more protests.

The Hoover Institute Confirms GOP Claims That Democratic Policies Are Responsible For Weak Economy

Krugman picks up on the reporting at the Hoover Institute on a recent conference that included a number of economists. Most of the economists were selected for their conservative viewpoint but some of the economists had a more liberal perspective. The summary of the remarks made by the economist in charge of the conference (a prominent economist) were inconsistent with remarks made by the less conservative economists. Krugman claims that he can't understand how they can get away with this since other economists will read the presentations. I doubt that this concerns the Hoover Institute. It is another conservative think tank whose major function is propaganda. Its audience is not primarily other economists, it is the general public which will be fed this information by the usual suspects in the media.

Everyone should know the major conservative think tanks that are engaged in right wing propaganda disguised as academic research. In addition to the Hoover Institute, the other major players are The Heritage Foundation, The American Enterprise Institute and the Cato Institute. There are many other smaller organizations with a similar role but there are too many to list here.

Occupy Moscow Is Our Latest Global Protest

This is a report of protests in Moscow regarding the elections. It looks like protests are spreading around the world. The reasons for the protests vary but concern over the democratic functioning of government is a constant. The Russian stock market fell 4% yesterday in response to the protests. The Russian government will react with stronger actions than we have seen in the US and the UK.

NYT Hosts A Discussion on The Economy

This is a link to a video of NYT op-ed writers discussing economic issues. Tom Friedman is the moderator and it includes Paul Krugman, Joe Nocera and Carmen Reinhart. It covers familiar territory with a focus on household debt deleveraging. There is lots of pessimism about the ability of our dysfunctional government to do anything about the issues.