How Long Before the Fed Raises Interest Rates?

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Mark Thoma answers the question by reviewing economic data which suggests the Fed keep interest rates low in the near-term. There are some positive signs of growth but not enough to change Fed policy. Auto sales are growing but we are still below industry capacity; Output is expanding but we are still well below 2007 level; Job growth of 35,000 was well below forecast and there are no signs of near-term inflation.

The wild cards in Thoma's analysis are a spike in oil prices due to violence in the mid-east and US politics in which both parties want to reduce government spending to appease the deficit hawks and a confused public.