link here to article
Steve Roach sees structural problems in the global economy that make it vulnerable to another shock. He thinks that a weakened global economy may not be able to ward off the next shock which is inevitable. We may be in for a double dip recession.
His reasons for believing the our current recovery is a "soft patch in quagmire" are described in this article. He describes the US consumer as a zombie and he is concerned about the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone and the prevailing view on how to fix it. The bright spot has been in Asia but the Pan Asia Zone is dependent upon exports to America and to Europe. Exports are 45% of GDP in Asia.
Roach sees structural problems that are not easily dealt with by monetary and fiscal policy. He also is concerned about the political systems ability to address the structural problems that put the global economy at risk. Don't expect the typical V shaped recovery from our current downturn.
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