Thursday, March 9, 2017

How Is Trump's Party Different From The Former Republican Party And Democratic Party?

Hillary Clinton's campaign was based upon demographic trends and cultural values.  She campaigned hard to win minority votes and the votes of college educated Americans.  The Democratic Party has relied on demographic trends which show that the non-white segment of the population is growing faster than the white population.  Donald Trump's campaign targeted non college educated whites.  Many of them had voted for Obama, but Trump did much better with this group than Romney had done in 2012 when he won 25% of the white vote. Trump won 39% more of the non college educated white vote than Clinton.  Trump's margin over Clinton among college educated whites was only 4%.  The Trump/Republican share of college educated white voters has been declining, while its share of non-college whites has skyrocketed; they are 55% of his base. 

Trump's campaign won the non-college white vote by a huge margin with a simple strategy: He did whatever he could to elevate the level of anger and fear in that segment while appealing to white resentment about perceived minority privileges; losing jobs to low wage immigrants and low wage labor in nations that export to the US; he also won almost all of the votes from white evangelicals.  The Democratic Party will have a difficult time winning future general elections as long as Trump's Party wins 39% more of the non-college educated white vote.  The major risk that Trump's Party, or the new Republican Party, faces is that he will not deliver on his promise to grow the economy and provide better paying jobs to that segment. His new healthcare plan is also a mess. The odds are that he will not deliver as promised to that group. He has sold them a ticket to hell.  He will have to find ways to blame Democrats for his failure. He will also take advantage of likely terrorism in the US and elsewhere to inflame fear and hatred in his base.  He will portray himself as the only candidate powerful enough to protect our nation.  He will continue to claim that the Democratic Party is too weak to protect us from terrorism. 

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