Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Are DSGE Economic Forecasting Models Very Useful?
This article debates the relevance of the DSGE models that are used by most central banks to make economic forecasts. It may interest some who are studying economics or who have a general interest in the subject. One of the discussions compares it to forecasting the weather. Someone once said the the purpose of economic forecasting is to make weather forecasters look good. There is much truth to that comment. They don't base their forecasts by making assumptions about molecular behavior and aggregating them. Weather forecasting has gotten much better because forecasters can observe weather patterns via satellites. They can also change their forecasts when there is change in the observed patterns.
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