Thursday, February 12, 2015
Would Ireland Be Better Off Today Without The Real Estate Boom and Bust?
Patrick Honohan is Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He asked himself a question and provided his answer in this article. Ireland experienced a real estate boom and the economy did much better than it would have done without the boom. Honohan looked at how the economy would have performed during the boom years without the stimulus from real estate, and how the economy would have performed after the bust if it duplicated the EZ performance after 2008. He compared the counterfactual with the actual performance of the economy and he concluded that Ireland would be much better off today if it had avoided the real estate boom. He argues that Ireland should take steps to prevent the risky lending that made the real estate boom and bust possible.