Friday, January 23, 2015
Where Will The Future Jobs Come From?
Tim Taylor provides an overview of the global jobs outlook provided by the International Labor Organization. Historically, there has been a progression in most countries from agriculture, to manufacturing and then to a services economy. Agricultural jobs in undeveloped countries will continue to decline and be replaced by manufacturing jobs. The number of manufacturing jobs created has peaked, however, below the levels it which they had peaked in developed countries. In developed countries, manufacturing jobs are declining and the services sectors are expected to provide the bulk of future jobs. Service sector jobs in government are expected to decline over the next five years as nations attempt to deal with debt problems. Private sector service jobs are polarized. A lot of low skill, low pay, service jobs will replace low skill manufacturing jobs that are lost. High skill service jobs, that depend upon the use of information technologies, will provide job opportunities that pay well. The problem in most developed countries is that middle skill jobs that provide provide a middle class living standard are not growing very fast. The hollowing out of the middle class is is consequence of the polarization that is taking place in the services sector.