Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Iowa Has Spoken: Rubio Will Be The GOP Nominee

The prediction market expects that Rubio will survive the GOP primary battle and be its nominee for the presidency.  Rubio's rise in the prediction market came at the expense of Donald Trump who is no longer the heavy favorite among those who bet on the outcome.  Ted Cruz won the Iowa primary but his gain in the prediction market was small relative to Rubio's rise in the market.  Those who bet on the outcome believe that Rubio is only establishment candidate left standing, and that support from the establishment will coalesce around Rubio.   Of course, what happens next in New Hampshire is bound to affect the prediction market.  Its fairly clear, however, that some of the candidates will disappear and that Rubio's chances for the nomination have improved.  Donald Trump may not survive a poor performance in New Hampshire where he as been at the top in the polls. 

One of the consequences of the Iowa result is that the media coverage will converge on Rubio.  The response of the media to the early contests will shape the public response to the candidates just as the early polls have focused attention on The Donald.

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