Tuesday, July 18, 2017

There Is Somethng That Can Sink Our Great Pretender

Trump's supporters are immune to many of the things that would concern most politicians.  There is one thing that could shrink his support.  "Its the economy stupid".  Trump convinced rust belt voters that he would bring their manufacturing jobs back.  He is still running that campaign.  He just held a rally for manufacturers who make their products in the US.  There are good reasons, however, why many lost jobs will not return.  Manufacturers can make things with much fewer workers than they once did.  That trend will continue.  Moreover, Trump's daughter has all of her products made overseas. She is no exception to a trend.  97% of our personal apparel is made in low wage countries.  Those jobs will never come back.  The skilled workers no longer exist and neither do the machines that are used overseas.  Trump also convinced coal miners that he would bring back their jobs.  That helped him to win Ohio and Pennsylvania which are swing states.  Those jobs are not coming back.  Machines have also replaced miners as production has shifted to extracting coal from mountain tops.  Moreover, declining oil and gas prices have made coal noncompetitive in most energy markets.

"You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time."  Its only been six months in Trump's presidency and his popular support is closely related to the performance of the economy.  The jobs that Trump promised to return will not happen, and our economy will not grow at the 3% rate that Trump has promised.  It may even get worse if some of his plans are realized.  Trump will continue to lose support from independents who are not happy with his clown show.  His support from blue collar democrats, and some Republicans, will continue to erode as Trump's populist claims become less credible over time.  His hold over Republicans in Congress will also erode.  What happens next is hard to predict but Trump's support has been built on quicksand.

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