Saturday, October 31, 2015

Betting Odds On Presidential Race In US

A large number of people are betting on the primaries and on the 2016 election.  The betting odds change over time as do poll results.  However, the betting odds have usually been a better predictor of the eventual results.  The latest betting odds provide good news for Marco Rubio and bad news for almost every other GOP candidate.  There were slight declines in the odds for Trump and Carson and a 10% drop for Jeb Bush.  Rubio's odds improved by 8.5%, which is almost equal to the decline in Bush's odds.  In fact, one of Bush's billionaire backers switched his support to Rubio after the last debate.  Unless things change rapidly for Bush his campaign may be history.  Rubio is now the front runner and more wallets will open up to him as long as he avoids a costly mistake.

There has been little change in Democratic nomination. Clinton is the odds on favorite for the nomination.  She is also is the favorite in the general election.  This is partially because she is assured of being one of the candidates in 2016.  However, the odds in her favor exceed the odds for the of total  for the entire group of GOP candidates.  This will change, of course, when the GOP gets behind the candidate who has the best chance of winning in 2016.  Right now that is Rubio.

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