Monday, March 7, 2016
The Delegate Math For GOP Nomination
This article looks at the numbers and concludes that Trump wins the nomination if he wins Ohio and Florida. Trump is ahead in the polls in Florida but millions are being spent by PAC's to attack Trump's character and his reputation as a successful business person. Kasich is the Governor of Ohio; he is likely to win his home state. If that happens Trump is unlikely to have enough delegates to win the nomination prior to the GOP convention. The GOP nominee will be determined by brokered convention. Trump is unlikely to be the candidate in a brokered convention. On the other hand, Rubio, who was the establishment candidate would be a poor choice unless a miracle happens in the remaining primaries. Ted Cruz will probably have the second largest number of delegates, but he is very unpopular within the GOP leadership. Cruz is very popular with ideological purists in the Tea Party and with evangelicals; he would be easy to beat in the general election. Someone like Mitt Romney may emerge as the nominee.