Thursday, November 1, 2012

Is Current Policy In Europe A Suicide Pact?

Austerity policy in Europe has been designed to reduce the debt to GDP ratios which are supposed to reduce the risk premia on sovereign debt.  That would work if the reduction in debt does not cause GDP to fall at a faster rate.  This study shows that, in fact, GDP has fallen at a higher rate than debt reduction.  Debt to GDP rations have actually increased and the reduction in risk premia for sovereign debt has not occurred.   Since there has been a coordinated austerity policy, in which many countries are reducing debt simultaneously,  GDP in Europe has contracted and stronger economies like the UK and Germany have seen declines in GDP and increases in their debt to GDP ratios.  It appears that coordinated austerity policies in Europe are making matters worse.

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