When other factors are eliminated, the data show that the rise in the Republican share of votes in white manufacturing counties was largely due to a drop in Democratic votes; while the rise in the Democratic share in non-white manufacturing counties was driven by a relatively higher drop in Republican votes. In addition, on average across counties, as compared with 2012, relatively low voting rates among Democratic voters was a bigger contributor to the results than high voting rates among Republicans. Put differently, Trump did not win the white working class, Clinton lost it.
Thursday, June 1, 2017
Manufacturing Was Not The Reason Why Trump Won
This study of manufacturing counties showed the election was not won by Trump's appeals to voters in manufacturing counties. Trump won in counties that were predominantly white largely because Democrats failed to turn out. Trump lost in more diverse manufacturing counties because Republicans did not turn out. The paragraph below argues that Trump did not win manufacturing votes. Clinton did not turn out the Democratic vote.